Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2533 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2533 · CLT → EYW

departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

EYW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2533 · CLT → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?