Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2556 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2556 · CLT → SFO

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.08 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2556 · CLT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?