Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2556 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2556 · CLT → SFO

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.39 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2556 · CLT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?