Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2773 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2773 · DCA → TPA

departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

TPA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2773 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?