Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2773 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2773 · DCA → TPA

departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.666667 mi forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility0.666667 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2773 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?