Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2775 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2775 · TPA → DCA

departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2775 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?