Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2775 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2775 · TPA → DCA

departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2775 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?