Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2963 LANDED 7:51 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 2963 · MBJ → MIA

took off · landed 7:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MBJ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2963 · MBJ → MIA

Odds over time