Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2985 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2985 · RDU → DCA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:13 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.15 in

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2985 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?