Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2985 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2985 · RDU → DCA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:13 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from RDU are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3.86667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2985 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?