AA 3034 · MIA → DCA

took off 3:36 PM ET · expected to land 5:41 PM ET (scheduled 3:36 PM ET → 6:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3034 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?