Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3091 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3091 · DFW → FAT

departs 10:07 PM CT · arrives 11:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.61 in

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3091 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?