Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3091 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3091 · DFW → FAT

departs 9:59 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3091 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?