Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?