Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.17 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?