Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

departs 6:59 PM CT · arrives 10:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?