AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
43%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3176 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?