Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3302 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3302 · PHL → MIA

departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 2:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,467 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3302 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?