AA 400 · CLT → MIA

took off 6:45 PM ET · landed 8:27 PM ET (scheduled 6:35 PM ET → 8:43 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 400 · CLT → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?