Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 416SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 416 · MIA → JAX
departs 10:53 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.