AA 487 · BNA → MIA

departs 4:47 PM CT · arrives 8:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.24 in

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 487 · BNA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?