AA 582 · DCA → MIA

departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 9:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.38 in

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 582 · DCA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?