AA 874 · AUA → CLT

departs 2:30 PM AST · arrives 6:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CLT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 874 · AUA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?