Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 1154 · PBI → JFK
departs 11:12 AM ET · arrives 2:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PBI that day
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.