Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 1538 · MIA → LGA
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.