Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 1538 · MIA → LGA
departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MIA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.