Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1730 · MCO → MSP
departs 12:22 PM ET · arrives 2:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
12pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.