Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2958 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 2958 · MSP → DCA

departs 7:36 AM CT · arrives 11:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,233 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2958 · MSP → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?