Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2963 · DCA → MSP
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.