Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2992 · MIA → RDU
departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.