Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3068
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3068 · IAH → BWI
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 8:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 40%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.60 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.