Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3417 · SAT → LAS
departs 9:32 PM CT · arrives 10:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.16 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.