Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4353
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4353 · PHL → CLT
departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 35%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.