Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 4410 · ATL → IAD
departs 2:46 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 23%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.