Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 4410 · ATL → IAD
departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 23%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.09 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.