Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 4410 · ATL → IAD
departs 3:13 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 23%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.67 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.