Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524 LANDED 2:22 PM ET, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 4524 · AUS → MCO

took off 11:03 AM CT · landed 2:22 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4524 · AUS → MCO

Odds over time