Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3417 · BHM → DFW
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 75%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,033 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.