Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3474 · MIA → RDU
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 11:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
9pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.