Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3474 · MIA → RDU
departs 8:49 PM ET · arrives 11:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.