Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3485 · DFW → CRP
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 79%
Fri 10/2 52%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.