Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3494 · PHX → MFE
departs 7:10 PM MT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.