Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3494 · PHX → MFE
departs 7:10 PM MT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.