Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3494 · PHX → MFE
departs 7:10 PM MT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.