Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3530 · DFW → FSM
departs 3:39 PM CT · arrives 4:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 75%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at FSM that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.