Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3530 · DFW → FSM
departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±9 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at FSM that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
FSM usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.74 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.