Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3530 · DFW → FSM
departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 50%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.