Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3530 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3530 · DFW → FSM

departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at FSM that day

↓ FSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.81 in

FSM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.98 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3530 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?