Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3555
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3555 · MIA → TPA
departs 6:08 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MIA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.