Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3593 · DFW → SAT
departs 7:19 AM CT · arrives 8:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.